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WeaselInYerFoot
02-02-2010, 12:29 PM
EXCELLENT video showing the differences between the two economic schools.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk



We’ve been going back and forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits


[Keynes Sings:]

John Maynard Keynes, wrote the book on modern macro
The man you need when the economy’s off track, [whoa]
Depression, recession now your question’s in session
Have a seat and I’ll school you in one simple lesson

BOOM, 1929 the big crash
We didn’t bounce back—economy’s in the trash
Persistent unemployment, the result of sticky wages
Waiting for recovery? Seriously? That’s outrageous!

I had a real plan any fool can understand
The advice, real simple—boost aggregate demand!
C, I, G, all together gets to Y
Make sure the total’s growing, watch the economy fly

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits

You see it’s all about spending, hear the register cha-ching
Circular flow, the dough is everything
So if that flow is getting low, doesn’t matter the reason
We need more government spending, now it’s stimulus season

So forget about saving, get it straight out of your head
Like I said, in the long run—we’re all dead
Savings is destruction, that’s the paradox of thrift
Don’t keep money in your pocket, or that growth will never lift…

because…

Business is driven by the animal spirits
The bull and the bear, and there’s reason to fear its
Effects on capital investment, income and growth
That’s why the state should fill the gap with stimulus both…

The monetary and the fiscal, they’re equally correct
Public works, digging ditches, war has the same effect
Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth
The multiplier driving higher the economy’s health

And if the Central Bank’s interest rate policy tanks
A liquidity trap, that new money’s stuck in the banks!
Deficits could be the cure, you been looking for
Let the spending soar, now that you know the score

My General Theory’s made quite an impression
[a revolution] I transformed the econ profession
You know me, modesty, still I’m taking a bow
Say it loud, say it proud, we’re all Keynesians now

We’ve been goin’ back n forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Keynes] I made my case, Freddie H
Listen up , Can you hear it?

Hayek sings:

I’ll begin in broad strokes, just like my friend Keynes
His theory conceals the mechanics of change,
That simple equation, too much aggregation
Ignores human action and motivation

And yet it continues as a justification
For bailouts and payoffs by pols with machinations
You provide them with cover to sell us a free lunch
Then all that we’re left with is debt, and a bunch

If you’re living high on that cheap credit hog
Don’t look for cure from the hair of the dog
Real savings come first if you want to invest
The market coordinates time with interest

Your focus on spending is pushing on thread
In the long run, my friend, it’s your theory that’s dead
So sorry there, buddy, if that sounds like invective
Prepared to get schooled in my Austrian perspective

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits

The place you should study isn’t the bust
It’s the boom that should make you feel leery, that’s the thrust
Of my theory, the capital structure is key.
Malinvestments wreck the economy

The boom gets started with an expansion of credit
The Fed sets rates low, are you starting to get it?
That new money is confused for real loanable funds
But it’s just inflation that’s driving the ones

Who invest in new projects like housing construction
The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction
The savings aren’t real, consumption’s up too
And the grasping for resources reveals there’s too few

So the boom turns to bust as the interest rates rise
With the costs of production, price signals were lies
The boom was a binge that’s a matter of fact
Now its devalued capital that makes up the slack.

Whether it’s the late twenties or two thousand and five
Booming bad investments, seems like they’d thrive
You must save to invest, don’t use the printing press
Or a bust will surely follow, an economy depressed

Your so-called “stimulus” will make things even worse
It’s just more of the same, more incentives perversed
And that credit crunch ain’t a liquidity trap
Just a broke banking system, I’m done, that’s a wrap.

We’ve been goin’ back n forth for a century
[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
[Hayek] I want them set free
There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.
[Keynes] No it’s the animal spirits


Hayek? or Keynes. Who do you think is right?
After reading or listening to the lyrics, you'll probably notice what economist is being used at this moment.

HumanityisSaved
02-02-2010, 12:40 PM
Ha ha the bartender's are Tim and Ben.

Hayek all the way. Keynes was all wrong and Keynsian economics has a slim chance at best only when the US Govt. actually HAS money. We are worse than broke we are TRILLIONS in debt.

Now look up Cloward/ Pivan....

WeaselInYerFoot
02-03-2010, 02:17 AM
Ha ha the bartender's are Tim and Ben.

Hayek all the way. Keynes was all wrong and Keynsian economics has a slim chance at best only when the US Govt. actually HAS money. We are worse than broke we are TRILLIONS in debt.

Now look up Cloward/ Pivan....


It seems to me that the government is trying the exact same method used to recover from the depression in 1920's right now. I'm hoping it'll work, but I don't think this is a good thing if we have to do this over and over. At some point we won't be able to.

From what I understand, Keynsian economics tells us that savings are destructive. It's based off a model that relies heavily on inflation. You save money, and inflation devalues it. While debt is a benefit. You have debt, and inflation reduces it, while the assets you bought through debt increase in value (for example, a car in the 1950's would cost 2 or 3 thousand dollars. That same car in mint condition currently is worth 20 to 30 thousand).

Even though I'm an austrian economics type of guy, I'm at least looking forward to being able to pay my mortgage off sooner when hyper inflation hits. Provided my paycheck keeps up with the changes.

Gandalf
02-04-2010, 08:34 AM
It seems to me that the government is trying the exact same method used to recover from the depression in 1920's right now. I'm hoping it'll work, but I don't think this is a good thing if we have to do this over and over. At some point we won't be able to.
Problem is it didn't work then; FDR's policies actually prolonged (http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx) the Great Depression. It took WWII for the economy to overcome the counter-productive government policies of that era and actually recover.

Pouye
02-04-2010, 04:55 PM
Problem is it didn't work then; FDR's policies actually prolonged (http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx) the Great Depression. It took WWII for the economy to overcome the counter-productive government policies of that era and actually recover.

Agreed. The problem is that economists need to understand that PEOPLE drive the economy, not dollars, graphs, stocks, bonds or numbers. When people are encouraged to be productive and are rewarded for being so, and any stops to productivity are pulled out of their way, the economy will respond positively.

I'm a firm believer that "governing" is to do the above. Governments should encourage honest productivity, discourage dishonesty/anti-productivity, and get their fingers out of the way so they don't micro-manage. I don't support any redistribution policies that punish those who are most productive or allow those who are unproductive to have a free ride. I do believe in tightly monitored welfare for the purpose of "getting people back on their feet" so-to-speak. But I don't believe that welfare necessarily needs to be state run, either. I think some taxes should be collected for the 1% "destitute" who simply cannot pay for their health care and would otherwise die without public assistance. But this is a small portion of State/Federal welfare (1-2%).

Competition, private ownership and freedom to reap the benefits of your labors are the keys to a successful economy. Governments should not try to compete with private industry, because then the Government competes with the hands that feed them. They should always encourage private industry and employ them only on contractual terms that all parties agree to. Governement run programs are far less efficient and waste a lot of money and resources compared to private industries.

Rock

WeaselInYerFoot
02-05-2010, 05:06 AM
Problem is it didn't work then; FDR's policies actually prolonged (http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx) the Great Depression. It took WWII for the economy to overcome the counter-productive government policies of that era and actually recover.

Not to mention that he had to tax the rich like a madman to get the money back. I'm pretty sure that our current market is going to drop again. February will be an interesting month.

WeaselInYerFoot
02-05-2010, 05:07 AM
Agreed. The problem is that economists need to understand that PEOPLE drive the economy, not dollars, graphs, stocks, bonds or numbers. When people are encouraged to be productive and are rewarded for being so, and any stops to productivity are pulled out of their way, the economy will respond positively.

I'm a firm believer that "governing" is to do the above. Governments should encourage honest productivity, discourage dishonesty/anti-productivity, and get their fingers out of the way so they don't micro-manage. I don't support any redistribution policies that punish those who are most productive or allow those who are unproductive to have a free ride. I do believe in tightly monitored welfare for the purpose of "getting people back on their feet" so-to-speak. But I don't believe that welfare necessarily needs to be state run, either. I think some taxes should be collected for the 1% "destitute" who simply cannot pay for their health care and would otherwise die without public assistance. But this is a small portion of State/Federal welfare (1-2%).

Competition, private ownership and freedom to reap the benefits of your labors are the keys to a successful economy. Governments should not try to compete with private industry, because then the Government competes with the hands that feed them. They should always encourage private industry and employ them only on contractual terms that all parties agree to. Governement run programs are far less efficient and waste a lot of money and resources compared to private industries.

Rock

That's Hayek's idea as well.

HumanityisSaved
02-05-2010, 06:03 AM
So bad were the policies of the progressive left (marxists) in FDR's era that to recover the rich were taxed unfairly to the point that when Ronald Reagan took office the top marginal tax rate was over 70%. Taxing rich people and businesses HURTS the economy. Keynes' ideas required that a very demanding piper be paid. I believe Hayek's is a "pay as you go" sort of method.